MMP scenarios

Same vote. Different government.

Drag the slider to move National's party vote. The National vote changes are dispersed evenly between NZ First and ACT, so the centre-right's share stays at 49.7% in every scenario. Watch what happens to the seats.

With National on 30.2% of the party vote

Centre-left government

1-seat majority

123

seats in Parliament

62needed to govern

National's party vote 30.2%

National's lost votes go to

NZ First 12.4% ACT 7.1%

49.1%

Centre-left party vote

49.7%

Centre-right party vote

Detailed polling dataParty vote, electorate and list seats for each party

Electorate seats List seats Gold figures just changed

Why the seats move

3 overhang seats in this scenario: 123 seats instead of 120.

National holds 37 electorate seats in every scenario. Once its party vote drops below about 30%, it keeps those electorates even though its party vote no longer covers them. The extra seats are overhang, and Parliament grows past 120. Meanwhile NZ First and ACT earn list seats for the votes National gives up. Te Pāti Māori's six electorates add an overhang of three throughout.

Source: MMP scenario modelling is based on NZ Herald Poll of Polls. Party vote polls and seat projections per scenario. Seat totals include overhang seats.