Same vote. Different government.
Drag the slider to move National's PARTY VOTE. The National vote changes are dispersed evenly between NZ First and ACT, so the centre-right's share stays at 49.7% in every scenario. Then use the Te Pāti Māori slider underneath to choose how many of the seven Māori ELECTORATES it wins, from four to seven. Try both sliders together and watch how they change the shape of Parliament and who governs. For each party's vote and seats, open Detailed polling data below the sliders.
With National on 30.2% and Te Pāti Māori winning 6 electorates
Centre-left government
1-seat majority
Why the seats move
3 overhang seats in this scenario: 123 seats instead of 120.
National holds 37 electorate seats in every scenario. Once its party vote drops below about 30%, it keeps those electorates even though its party vote no longer covers them. The extra seats are overhang, and Parliament grows past 120. Meanwhile NZ First and ACT earn list seats for the votes National gives up.
Te Pāti Māori creates overhang on the other side. Its 2.1% party vote is worth about three seats, so every Māori electorate it wins beyond that is an overhang seat. The electorates it doesn't win go to Labour, whose total barely changes because its list seats make up the difference. Each extra Te Pāti Māori electorate adds a seat to the centre-left.
National's votes go to
Labour wins the Māori electorates Te Pāti Māori doesn't
Detailed polling dataParty vote, electorate and list seats for each party
Source: MMP scenario modelling is based on NZ Herald Poll of Polls. Party vote polls and seat projections per scenario, with Te Pāti Māori winning four to seven electorates. Seat totals include overhang seats.